Menjelajahi Masa Depan Pariwisata NTB: Simulasi Kunjungan Wisatawan Domestik Tahun 2025 Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

Abstract

West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province has significant potential in the domestic tourism sector, but year-to-year fluctuations in tourist numbers require an accurate predictive approach to support policymaking. This study aims to simulate the number of tourist visits to NTB in 2025 using a probabilistic approach based on the Monte Carlo Method. Historical tourist visit data for the 2020-2024 period is used as the basis for forming a monthly probability distribution. Furthermore, random generation using a Linear Congruential Generator (LCG) and mapping against cumulative probability intervals are carried out to generate a simulation of visits in 2025. The simulation results show an increasing trend in tourist numbers as conditions recover post-pandemic, with a prediction accuracy level reaching 105.02%, demonstrating the strong performance of this approach. In general, this study confirms that the Monte Carlo Method is an effective, flexible, and relevant predictive tool to support tourism strategy planning, thus assisting the government and stakeholders in formulating policies that are adaptive to uncertainty.